Future History – an oxymoron? Part IV

Men haven’t changed much in the last 2000 years and, in consequence, we must still learn from history

Kenneth Clarke

Our starting premise is “Future History” and the “Power of Ideas”

Earlier blogs were, by definition, general in nature so to extend this theme – for the moment – can we turn ideas into something more practical?

Precious metals:
You can invest in these in three principal ways

 Physical
 Stocks and shares in producers and related companies
 ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)

The market place has changed radically in recent months as ETFs have become the handiest ways of investing. This has lead to increased volatility and underperformance in the shares of mining related companies – particularly the mid-tier and juniors.

Each of the three options has their merits, for general investors, traders and specialists.

Food and Commodities:
Again a few different ways to invest

 Futures – a specialist method - not for the general public
 Stocks and shares in producers and related companies e.g.
fertilizers, refiners etc
 ETFs

The rise in the price of this group has been multi-faceted: - Lower production in main producing countries due to lower yields, shortages, internal pressures and of course growing world population and wealth. On this latter point, as the poorest part of society spend proportionately more of their income on food, any rise in such income – at least in the early stages – goes on more and better food.


Another factor is of course inflation and so we have the circle of - shortage - leading to price inflation - to a fight for available resources. (Some may argue that these three are in the wrong order if so, let the argument commence!)

A word on ETFs
These instruments have been created to cover sectors, individual resources, countries, indices etc etc. while some are leveraged and also inverse.
They provide a neat way of playing your Bull or Bear tendencies in an increasingly wide spread of investment options - or even as an each-way bet if you are so inclined!

Next - specific recommendations

Resources:
Latin America: Food expenditures and Consumption
Prospects for the Future: Nutritional, Environmental and Sustainable Food Production Considerations - Changes in Cultural and Consumer Habits
Farmers guarding their crops
Africa Health

Robert Mooney discusses topics around investment strategies, ETF investing and Market Sentiment for Zignals
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Future History – an oxymoron III

Last I talked briefly about Food.

In plotting investment strategy we need to look ahead to what might be: -

• The next big trend
• The fashion in investment circles and how this is going to be sold to the
punters.
• If broadly similar circumstances arose before how they can be,
or should they be, applied to the future
• Is there a cycle that has sufficient regularity to be of use?
So back to food

The world needs more now and will require even more out into the future.

• Why – the world population will grow ( barring a catastrophe or
Wide spread disease or war)
• Asia, Latin America and later Africa, in moving from an income of
X per day to 2 X, will eat more and want a more varied diet


• Climate change will, most likely, periodically impact negatively on food
production from some traditional food suppliers.


• Politics and World Trade Agreements will inevitably distort the
production of food in the developing countries.

As we said last time – Follow the Food Trail.

Has the time of GM food finally come?

Resources:
GNI
Health Impacts caused by Climate Change
Climate Vulnerability; Oxford University
Guardian newspaper: Food crisis more pressing than climate change
Telegraph newspaper: Embracing GM foods
The case against GM foods for solving Food Poverty

Robert Mooney discusses topics around investment strategies, ETF investing and market sentiment for Zignals
Read more!

Future History - an oxymoron II

Ideas can be big or small but the impact of either can be world influencing.
How about the Paper Clip or the Theory of Relativity?

In dealing with fundamental ideas, commodities and precious metals typically grab the headlines, but of considerable (and often neglected) importance is food and water.

Food and water – something we take for granted - especially if you live, as I do, in Ireland, that tiny island off Europe.

The world has over 9 billion - 9,000,000,000 - people with one quarter living in India and China.

To feed and water so many requires great effort – so where can such effort come from?

Many countries are self sufficient or could be with proper organization. The big breadbasket countries will need to increase production to keep pace BUT the bugbear here, in recent times, has been the weather.

The investment implications are many – follow the food trail to South America, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand and of course the US and Canada.


Where will Europe figure in all of this? Producing surpluses of wine and olive oil (and perhaps politics) won’t help, so has the time come for a fundamental change in agricultural policy?

It would appear to be an issue of great urgency

Resources:
http://www.ifpri.org/2020/visuals/VISUALS.HTM
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EUY/is_8_12?pnum=2&opg=n16086406

Robert Mooney discusses topics around investment strategies, ETF investing and market sentiment for Zignals
Read more!