Zignals Stock Chart: S&P/SPY trading relative to the November bottom

In relative terms to its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs the S&P is knocking around the same zone as it was on November 19th and 21st 2008; back then the S&P was 35.5% and 35.7% away from its 200-day MA; 20.6% and 19.8% from its 50-day MA; and 11.1% and 10.8% from its 20-day MA repsectively. As of yesterday the S&P was 35.1% from its 200-day MA, 17.0% from its 50-day MA and 12.3% from its 20-day MA. Outside of this the closest we have come in recent history (back to 1950 at least) is October 1974. Back then the S&P only diverged 28.4% from its 200-day MA. So we are looking at a whole new ballgame.

In SPY terms we could see a capitulation over the next couple of days.


It looks like a capitulation is needed to spike volume into fear selling, something which has been relatively lacking since the start of the year (especially when compared to the volumes of September through to November). Bottoms can come in on a whimper but volatility would have to drop off considerably for it to happen and this seems unlikely.


I have entered a YourCall for a push to $84.39 but have run a tight stop on the 2-day low. If the index gaps down then it could fall far (and fast), so not looking to pick a bottom.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Stocks for 2009

Like the Christmas Sales, the Stocks for 2009 are making an early appearance. So let's see who has gone for what:

Jubak at MSN:

Exxon Mobil (XOM); target of $91

JP Morgan (JPM); Preferred share target of $42

Energy Transder Partners (ETP); target of $42

ONEOK Partners (OKS); target of $52 by December 2009 and $58 by June 2009.

Petroleo Brasileriro (PBR); target of $41

Transocean ltd (RIG); target of $117.60

Gorman-Rupp (GRC); target of $35

Middleby Corp (MIDD); target of $75

Chesapeake Energy (CHK); target of $39

US Bancorp (USB); target of $44

Kinross Gold Corp (KGC); target of $19.75 by June 2009

Enbridge Inc (ENB); target of $48 by February 2009

Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF); target of $5

Plum Creek Timber Co. (PCL); target of $53

Rayonier Inc (RYN); target of $55

Ultra Pertoleum (UPL); target of $107

Thompson Creek Metals (TC); target of $9.90

Yara International (YARIY); target of $38

Maxwell Technologies (MXWL); target of $14

Deere and Co. (DE); target of $62

Devon Energy Corp (DVN); target of $85

Goldcorp (GG); target of $46

MSN Experts:

The Prudent Speculator:

VF (VFC)

Manitowoc (MTW)

Gamestop (GME)

The Oberweis Rerport:

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

VisionChina (VISN)

Illumina (ILMN)

Turnaround Letter:

Teradyne (TER)

Qwest Communications International (Q)

The Value Line Investment Survey:

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

McDonald's (MCD)

W.W. Grainger (GWW)

Investment Quality Trends:

Barrick Gold (ABX)

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL)

Zacks Elite:

Brisotl-Myers Squibb (BMY)

Apollo Group (APOL)

Almanac Investor:

United States Oil (USO)

Direxion Energy Bull 3X Shares (ERX)

Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM)

Ultra Semiconductor ProShares (USD)

Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG)

Ultra Real Estate (URE)

Global Investing:

Banco Santander (STD)

Computershare (CMSQF)

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Jim Cramer:

Housing for 2009...

Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Home Depot (HD)

Tol Brothers (TOL)

Beazer Homes (BZH)

Black and Decker (BDK)

Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FRE)

Federal National Mortgage (FNM)

Loews Corp (L)

Contrarian Profits:

Ford (F)??

General Electric (GE)

Brisotl Myers Squibb (BMY)

Verizon (VZ)

AT&T (T)

Lorillard (LO)

Altria (MO)

Goldman bond 7.35% yield

Alcoa bond 6.00% yield

European Stocks from CNBC

BSkyB (BSY)

Nestle (NESN)

Zurich Life (ZURN)

Misys (MIS)

Dialog (???)

Accor (AC)

Australian Stocks

BHP Billiton (BHP)

MacArthur Coal (???)

Monolog top 10 US and European:

US:

Sierra Wireless (SWIR)

Vaalco Energy (EGY)

Terra Industries (TRA)

Verigy (VRGY)

CF Industries Holdings (CF)

CTC Media (CTCM)

MEMC Electronic Materials (MEMC)

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP)

EMCOR Group (EME)

KBR (KBR)

EU:

Andritz (ANDR)

Gestevision Telecinco (TL5)

Antena 3 de Television (A3TV)

EVS Broadcast Equipment (EVS)

TomTom (TOM2)

GEA Group (G1A)

Vallourec (VK)

MAN (MAN)

Salzgitter (SZG)

Rexel (RXL)

AOL Financial Cheap stocks for 2009:

PepsiCo (PEP)

Costo (COST)

Amazon (AMZN)

J.M. Smuckers (SJM)

Estee Lauder (EL)

IBM (IBM)

Clorox (CLX)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

St. Jude (STJ)

BMC Software (BMC)

Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK)

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)

Monsanto (MON)

Dominion (D)

All of these stocks will be added to Zignals YourCall (part of Zignals Stock Charts) and act as a barometer for 2009. Challenge yourself against the Pros and make YourCall for 2009.

Thanks to Intelligent Speculator for the Festival of Stocks Link.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: Land of Leather

From the Irish Times.

The group is suffering alongside other big ticket retailers from the economic downturn. Total sales orders fell by 47 per cent in the three months to November 2nd.

It added recently: “We expect market conditions to be challenging and uncertain for the remainder of 2008 and 2009 which includes the important January sale period.”

Shares, which floated at 149p in 2005, closed at just 9p on Monday, giving it a market capitalisation of around £4.5 million. Despite the slump, Land of Leather said it would protect remaining shareholder value.

Based on the currently traded price of 6p it puts the market cap at £2.1m according to Yahoo. However, the Irish Times wnet on to say it has £6.9m in cash with no debt:

In October Land of Leather revealed that its annual pre-tax profits had dived to £2.3 million, down from £18.5 million the previous year, while like-for-like sales orders had fallen by 28.9 per cent. But on the plus side, the company is debt free, and reported £6.9 million of cash.

According to its price history the stock is heading towards November lows have closed its recent breakout gap and challenging the massive breakout gap from the summer.


I've created a call for this stock to challenge the upper part of the range with a target of 13.49p with a stop below 3.75p support at 3.69p.

If you have an opinion on this stock we would like to hear about it - make a YourCall today.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: Pawn Industry

The doom-and-gloom has its boom in the shape of the pawn industry. Search for the term "pawn shop" enjoyed steady gains since 2007. The spikes in the search traffic - with the exception of the most recent spike - relate to criminal investigations.


"Sell my stuff" made an emergence as a search term mid-2007 just before the market headed south.

One stock with an interest in the field is First Cash Financial (FCFS). Since it's feature on November 20th the stock is up 41% and on its way to challenge August 2008 highs at $19.89.


But looks like Ebay (EBAY) is out of favour as an avenue to sell the brick-and-brack.

Have an opinion on these stocks? Share it with our YourCall facility. Free stock charting with save and annotations too.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: Big test for AIB

Allied Irish Banks was one of the many losers in the opening of US financial markets although there was no company specific news to account for the drop. With my second AIB call under threat with a stop at €1.89 can it find the reserves to dig in and hold €1.91 support?


For US Market watchers, support for AIB is at $5.00. Made a fresh call for the US version:


Think AIB will make it to November highs or break November lows? Make YourCall today.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: Nokia (NOK1V)

More happy news, this time from Nokia.

HELSINKI (AFP) - Nokia (Xetra: 870737 - news) , the world's leading mobile phone maker, on Thursday lowered its outlook for the global cell phone market this year and offered a bleak forecast for 2009.

"The mobile device market slowdown has continued more rapidly than previously expected," Nokia said, adding that it "now estimates that fourth quarter 2008 industry mobile device volumes will be lower than the previous estimate (it gave last month) of approximately 330 million units."

Market participants look to have shrugged off the news with buyers unwilling to step in to halt the slide.


There is a chance for bulls to break resistance from September highs through to December which can generate a push to €13.40 (larger declining channel resistance). One for short term traders.



On Zignals Stock Charts, YourCall, there is only my opinion for a push to €18.15 with a stop at €9.59. If you have an opinion on Nokia (or any other stock) we would love to hear it - sign up for free at Zignals, head to Charts and make YourCall.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: Ryanair vs Aer Lingus

Michael O'Leary has made a bargain basement offer for Aer Lingus. With oil prices down at 2007 lows the coming months should be 'better' for the industry - even if this only translates to 'less worse' than other industries during the recession.

From the Irish Times

Ryanair has launched a second bid to purchase Aer Lingus in an offer that values the carrier at €748 million, or approximately half the value of its first bid.

The €1.40 a share cash bid represents a premium of around 28 per cent over the average closing price of Aer Lingus shares for the 30 days to November 28th, 2008.

Ryanair already owns almost 30 per cent of Aer Lingus shares and said in a statement it is proposing a “merger of the two airlines into one strong Irish airline group under common ownership”.

At 1.12pm Aer Lingus shares were 16 cent or 14 per cent higher €1.28, while Ryanair stock was flat at €2.93.

What could this mean for Ryanair's stock price? Since the start of the year the stock has traded within a fairly orderly downward channel. The past month has seen prices up near resistance of this channel - a good sign for a pending break from the channel. However, the market reaction to the deal may delay this breakout a little while longer. Buyers have been interested when Ryanair stock dips below €2.50 so sideline money may be waiting for another trip to this zone before taking the bait. My call reflects this pessimism going forward.


Within our community; Ecoklens has already seen his call for a move to €3.35 stopped out at €2.85; while Amergin is looking for a target of €4.00 with a stop at €2.00. What's YourCall?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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How has the dropped bid for Rio Tinto by BHP influenced share prices of each?

From FTAlphaville:

BHP Billiton, the global miner, painted a gloomy near-term outlook for metals demand on Thursday as it defended its decision to drop a $66bn bid for rival Rio Tinto, reports Reuters. BHP, facing its shareholders for the first time since walking away from the Rio bid on Tuesday, told its Australian annual meeting that uncertainty in commodities markets would continue in the short term and it was ready to close loss-making operations. Marius Kloppers, BHP chief executive, warned shareholders in Melbourne that Chinese steel production would decrease 17% year-on-year and that BHP would not be “immune” to global economic uncertainty. Lex says BHP’s investors should “thank their lucky stars” that Kloppers and chairman Don Argus saw sense to pull the Rio deal – and should “press for a more honest appraisal of the wretched operating environment.

Shareholders of BHP Billiton (BLT) greeted the news positively; pushing the stock beyond prior supply and in the process confirming a double bottom. This sets up a possible move to July/August reaction highs. I have created a call for a push to 1752p over the next 6-months - we'll see how this evolves.


On the other side of the deal is Rio Tinto (RIO). The collapse of the buyout deal generated a price breakdown, two days prior to BHP's upside break of the same trading pattern (given stock behaviour of a buyout target typically matches that of the acquiree). The chart provides very little comfort for bulls.


Have an opinion? Let us know with YourCall.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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YourCall: Top 3/4 Picks

The latest Zignals YourCall feature has three (well four) front-runners from our community.

Heading the list with seven calls is Bank of Ireland (BKIR). Since my initial call, rumors of "investment" in the bank have helped push the stock out of its short term downward turn.


The Zignals outlook based on the seven calls is 100% bullish:


Second on the list is Microsoft (MSFT). Will a push towards home entertainment over the coming holidays help boost XBOX 360 sales?


Of the four calls, one was bearish and four were bullish. All four calls exited with one by Milkob reaching its target (bullish) price for a 2.9% gain in one day.

Third on the list was Allied Irish Banks (AIB). Tuesday looks to have cleared a resistance level dating back to early October. This comes after Credit Suisse revised targets for AIB down to €1.00 from €3.20 and Bank of Ireland to €0.80 from €2.00.


On the Zignals community I have entered a 6-month call for a push back into the supply zone in the low €7s. User Amergin is looking for €3.00 on his call while the remaining two calls (an earlier one by myself) were exited at a target price and stop price (mine exiting at the stop). Amergin's stop is at €2.00, mine is at €1.89.

Fourth on the list was for Google (GOOG). The company announced it was to cut the number of contract workers it uses. From a price perspective it has made steady steps down. Whether it can find support here will depend on breaking declining resistance over the next couple of days.


On the YourCall front there was one stop hit at $275.59 by TommyJol. Of the remaining three calls there is a bearish call for $237.31 with a stop at $289.22, my recent call for $369 with a stop at $244, and a call by Milkob for $274.39 with a stop at $207.65 which may exit on Tuesday.

If you have an opinion on these stocks or others we would love to hear from you. Further information and charts are available by our real-time watchlist available below which is fully customisable by Zignals users.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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YourCall: Bank of Ireland

The new YourCall feature on our stock charts allows our chartwatchers to give their projections for their favourite stocks. With its launch less than 24 hours old we have already had some activity in the community.

Bank of Ireland's suspension of its dividend and subsequent removal from the Dow Jones STOXX Select Dividend 30 and DJ EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Indices contributed to its eight consecutive decline; a decline from 'highs' of €2.38 in early November to Monday's close of €0.83.


My own personal call is looking for a retest of November highs near €2.38 with a stop below Tuesday's intraday low (which may yet go lower) at €0.79. JH has gone for a short term target near Monday's highs at €1.10 with a call made from Monday's close at €0.83; JH called a stop at €0.76. TestUser1 (aka Zignals CTO) made a call during Monday's trading at €1.03 but that position was cooked with today's intraday drop to his stop at €0.82.


Do you have an opinion on Bank of Ireland (or another stock)? Make your call and let us know what you think.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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