Latest Zignals Trading Strategy Signals

A strong day for US markets yesterday has given way to a mixed one in Europe although the FTSE 250 ETF MIDD is holding above the critical 980 neckline support.

For the 58 trading strategies available on my home page there were a range of new and confirmation long entries. There was one profit target exit for PEY.UN (Toronto) from the Relative Canada strategy for a 23% gain.

BSE Zignals

Long Confirmation Entry for JLVY (Mumbai) at INR1047.1

Developing a Strategy

Long Entry for CSCO (Nasdaq) at $22.87
Long Confirmation Entry for KO (NYSE) at $51.93
Long Entry for MSFT (Nasdaq) at $25.80
Long Confirmation Entry for INTC (Nasdaq) at $21.14
Long Confirmation Entry for WMT (NYSE) at $51.30

ETFs Oak

Short Entry for SDS (NYSE) at $33.53
Short Entry for DXD (NYSE) at $28.28
Short Entry for QID (NYSE) at $17.77
Short Entry for TWM (NYSE) at $20.20

Frankfurt High Winners

Long Entry for PRAF (Frankfurt) at €6.46

FTSE Elm

Long Exit at Trailing Stop for JD. (London) at 743p

India Oak

Short Exit at Stop for CRGR (Mumbai) at INR259.1

Indian High Winners

Long Confirmation Entry for DLFL (Mumbai) at INR266.5
New Long Target and Stop for RNRL (Mumbai) at INR68.15 (EoD): Target INR71.82, Stop INR64.98
Long Unacted Entry for PGRID (Mumbai) at INR102.6 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.

Indian Strength

Long Confirmation Entry for HROH (Mumbai) at INR2004.1
New Long Target and Stop for RNRL (Mumbai) at INR68.15 (EoD): Target INR73.87, Stop INR62.93
Long Exit at Trailing Stop for HPCL (Mumbai) at INR340.6
New Long Target and Stop for LART (Mumbai) at INR1714.1 (EoD): Target INR1901.9, Stop INR1590.7

Relative Canada

Long Exit at Profit Target for PEY.UN (Toronto) at $15.65

Relative Frankfurt

New Long Target and Stop for MLP (Frankfurt) at €7.47 (EoD): Target €8.26, Stop €6.76

Relative UK

Long Confirmation Entry for LIO (London) at 87p
Long Entry for NARS (London) at 81p

Relative US Dividend

Long Unacted Entry for BP (NYSE) at $30.64 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (15) days ago.

Short Trender

Short Exit at Trailing Stop for BA (NYSE) at $67.16

Tri-Indicator Indian

Long Entry for NTML (Mumbai) at INR254.6

Tri-Indicator UK

Long Confirmation Entry for STHR (London) at 285p

UK Golden Brown

New Long Target and Stop for PVCS (London) at 58p (EoD): Target 66p, Stop 54p
Long Exit at Trailing Stop for JD. (London) at 743p
Long Unacted Entry for SFR (London) at 224p (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (13) days ago.

UK High Winners

Long Unacted Entry for SFR (London) at 224p (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (8) days ago.
Long Entry for CHNS (London) at 332p
Long Confirmation Entry for TBK (London) at 511p

US High Winners

Long Confirmation Entry for INTC (Nasdaq) at $21.14
Long Entry for MSFT (Nasdaq) at $25.80
Long Confirmation Entry for WMT (NYSE) at $51.30
Long Entry for CSCO (Nasdaq) at $22.87
Long Confirmation Entry for KO (NYSE) at $51.93


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Build a trading strategy in Zignals and potentially earn money too; download our Build a Trading Strategy PDF and get selling (and trading) today!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too.

Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com. JOIN US TODAY - IT'S FREE!
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FTSE 250 (MIDD) Risk is easily determined - but what of Reward?

No shortage of negative news items to burden the market but so far bulls are holding out. Looking at the FTSE 250 ETF (MIDD) there are buyers lurking around a support level connecting reaction lows of November, February, May and June. A loss of this level could send markets reeling but as long as it holds buyers hold the edge. This is the risk.



The real question is what's the upside?

If your long term view is bearish then the likelihood is for a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern; in this pattern there are two left-hand-shoulders at 945 (November) and 962 (January) and a head at 1,064 from April. If we are to see a right-hand-shoulder (and more likely two) then the first of these should appear around 1,015 depending on the length of time it takes the current bounce to get to a resistance line connecting the two left-hand-shoulders.

From there look for another move back to rising support then a bounce back to complete the second right-hand-shoulder before things really turn south.



A more bullish scenario raises the bar for a new upward price channel with resistance anchored at the April high. This would measure up for a first upside target close to 1,100. But for this to happen it would require negating the bearish scenario first!

On the trading signals front it was quiet on both the long and short front. Only one of my 58 trading strategies was busy generating signals - and most of these were for unacted signals!

ASX Price x 20-day MA

Long Unacted Entry for DJS (Sydney) at AU$4.38 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.
Long Entry for STO (Sydney) at AU$12.40 (EoD)
Long Unacted Entry for ANN (Sydney) at AU$12.48 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for WPL (Sydney) at AU$42.94 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (9) days ago.
Long Exit at Stop for QBE (Sydney) at AU$19.08 (EoD)
Long Unacted Entry for OSH (Sydney) at AU$5.52 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (4) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for ORG (Sydney) at AU$15.03 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (7) days ago.

ETF Kauto Star

New Long Target and Stop for TWM (NYSE) at $21.05 (EoD): Target $23.82, Stop $20.57
Long Entry for DXD (NYSE) at $29.74 (EoD)

India Oak

Short Confirmation Entry for SBI (Mumbai) at INR2264.5

Indian Strength

New Long Target and Stop for ONGC (Mumbai) at INR1179.4 (EoD): Target INR1313.4, Stop INR1098.5
Long Exit at Trailing Stop for HALC (Mumbai) at INR143.2

Tri-Indicator US Dividends

Long Exit at Stop for BP (NYSE) at $37.34

UK Golden Brown

Long Confirmation Entry for TBK (London) at 511p

UK High Winners

Long Entry for TBK (London) at 511p

Why not start your Zignals Trading Strategy Business with us today? Learn How to promote your Zignals Trading Business with Twitter.

Follow us on twitter here

How to Get Started with Zignals Build a trading strategy in Zignals and potentially earn money too; download our Build a Trading Strategy PDF and get selling (and trading) today!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too.

Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash.

Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN US TODAY - IT'S FREE!
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FTSE 250 ETF : Breakdown of 20-day moving average

For the second time in the space of a month the FTSE 250 has cracked below its 20-day moving average. The last time this occurred was early summer; then the index went on to spend a few weeks below this moving average, making a new lower low, before resuming the trend higher.


A similar event here should see a test of the 902.50 low -which was both an August reaction high and the early October reaction low - with the potential to drift down to 867 if a more protracted decline kicked in. Intermediate trends in the market tend to run between 3 weeks and 3 months with the current end-of-year a handy time scale for a flat/downward phase.

A more serious decline (one lasting months) would require confirmation of a top with a test of October's highs. This test could only emerge after a break of the prior March-October trend, with a sideways market shifting the focus from one of accumulation to one of distribution an important precursor to this test.

Market tops rarely shape the sharp reactions of market bottoms because people tend to be more reluctant to sell (even when holding a loss) than buy.

So setting a Zignals Stock Alert for XMCX at 902.50 and 867 will give heed as to possible trade opportunities with another at October highs to mark a resumption of the trend.

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, stock charts, stock screener and stock portfolio manager website
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FTSE 250 (MIDD) Indecision

Since the May highs the FTSE 250 (as measured by the ETF, MIDD) has been steadily working itself back to the former base between 555p and 697p (5,550 and 6,970 as per FTSE 250).


However, the challenge it faces as it lingers around 722.25p is whether it can push beyond 732.50p resistance or retreat to 697.80p. Yesterday's US Fed decision won't help the former case and the indecision currently exhibited in the market suggests the prior two days of gains are only window dressing in the broader 2-month decline.

The question is what will it do when if it makes it back to 697.80p? Too much time has passed to consider this a retest of support so the likely outcome is a drop into the former base range and a hunt for an area of demand. A drop all the way to 5550p is perhaps a little extreme given some form of rally would be expected during the interval. There was pivot action in the 635-642p range and this might be the area to watch on the part of bulls.

Buyer Beware...

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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Zignals Stock Charts: SPY and MIDD

The rally for the past couple of weeks has been a welcome relief but it hasn't got the indices out of the woods, nor indeed kicked off a new bull trend. However, it has given the markets a floor on which to work with. If the indices (tech and small caps in particular) can push through some of the supply zones in the market - most notably of which will be the January highs - then one can look with reasonable confidence for a larger push to the area of last September's meltdown.


The S&P (SPY) is nestled against declining resistance dating back to October. After the series of gains it has it will surely make a bigger return move than the 2-day attempt from last week. All eyes will be watching to see if March lows can hold.

The FTSE 250 (MIDD) has been far more resilient than the S&P 500, staying well above November/December lows. The ETF has traded in a steady range between 697p and 555p; a break of 700p would set the cat amongst the pigeons as anyone who took a stab at buying the market from last October onwards would then be sitting in a profit.


If 700p was breached the target of 810p (i.e. the start of the September breakdown) may be considered a little conservative with the potential for follow through to August highs of 947 a more enticing prospect.

One ETF stuck in a perpertual rut is the ISEQ 20 (0ESE). The high financial and property exposure of the Irish market help send the ISEQ 20 ETF into a death spiral from which it has yet to emerge. To break the bear market would require the ETF to get above €5.67; a tall order from its current price of €3.89.


So look to the UK for leads...

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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5 UK-listed Stocks ranked by Stability and Return for 2009

There is no shortage of "stock picks for 2009" for US enthusiasts, but a little more digging is required for UK market followers. The following five stocks were ranked by Market Cap and Yield so should provide some stability going forward while netting an attractive return while holding:

First up is HSBC Holdings (HSBA). The stock sports a listed yield of 9.6% but given the past financial turmoil this may yet be optimistic. The stock has weathered the financial meltdown better than most and if it can break from what is considered a bullish consolidation (the "wedge") then it could have a good 2009. Contrarians will like the increased negativity from the broker recommendations over the past two months given it didn't cause a collapse in the share price; mean broker target is 745.85p with a median of 765.61p



Second on the list is the UK stalwart, BP. (BP.) At just over £5 a share with a 29p per share dividend it offers value buyers something to mull over. Brokers slant heavily towards the 'Buy' side but there are a couple more skeptics than there were two months ago. The chart sports a bearish pattern, but even if it was to break through the rising support line connecting the lows it may not last long there with support located nearby at 463p; mean broker target is 604.20p with a median of 600.00p



Third is Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). After what looked to be a relatively ordely spate of selling from the summer the stock has managed to find some footing. The 5.68% yield helps in this low interest rate environment (although it only lists a 0.95% yield for UK listed shares) and with crude oil deeply discounted it looks like value buyers are taking advantage. The last upgrade/downgrade on record was by ING back in May 2008 (an upgrade to "buy"). I have made a YourCall for a push back to summer highs - if you disagree with this then we would love to have your call.


Next on the list is Vodafone (VOD). Like Shell it went through the latter part of 2008 with a measured decline and recovery, helped by the attractive 5.41% yield for buyers. Brokers remained distinctly neutral on the stock; perhaps waiting for a more volatile period before throwing their hat into the ring; mean broker target is 151.41p with a median of 160.00p



Finally there is GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Unlike its counterparts it had a relatively uneventful 2008, trading in a broad range and currently challenging the upper reaches of this range. The yield of 4.41% is still attractive at these levels and with Brokers sitting on their hands with this one too it might turn out to be the quiet performer of 2009; mean broker target is 1268p with a median of 1277.50p - given it has surpassed these targets the Broker high target is 1380p.



Make a Call; set an Alert; Chart their future; follow these stocks today on Zignals.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website

Broker data sourced from Yahoo! and provided to them by FactSet JCF.

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Future History - an oxymoron? Consequences

Apologies to all as this was posted out of sequence with the last article.

Recent events in Ireland, in rejecting the Lisbon Treaty, set me thinking about the events that have happened and could happen in the future and the implications for investors.

First to past events:-

The Millennium Bug was anticipated with dread in that the year 2000 was going to bring about the failure of all computer systems worldwide with consequent impact on all our lives.

The consequence
– Replacement of old systems by worldwide businesses to the benefit of computer manufacturers and the sector in general.
- Businesses increased their capacity to do business and control outsourced work to the cheaper Far East with loss of jobs in the West
- A total collapse of the technology sector in early 2000 with huge loss to investors and the demise of 1000’s of computer related companies.
- Some 8 years later the technology sector is still trying the recover

Some 20/30 years ago China adopted a one child policy

The consequence
- Currently in the under 25 age bracket a ratio of 118 male to 100 female
- Now a liberation of women in education to make up for the shortfall
- A potential shortage of wives in certain social strata in China
- The next generation of leaders of government and business will have a totally different outlook, as single males growing up, with no way of calculating the fall out.

Cheap energy for decades

The consequence
- Enormous growth in western economies and the rise of US influence in all spheres of industry and finance
- The inevitable backlash by oil producers who wanted more for their precious product
- The accumulation of gigantic US$ holdings by the oil producers and the necessity to recycle outside of their own economies.
- The delight of bankers to deal with task and to invent even more esoteric methods of deploying the $.
- The financial bubble that resulted and the subsequent bursting of that bubble

The stockmarket in 1972/74

The consequence
- A collapse of the UK Index from 500+ to 146 at end 1974
- A foreseen collapse of the wealthy class in Britain
- Jim Slater (a leading investor guru at the time) suggesting that all you needed to survive the apocalypse was – tinned beans, gold Krugerrands and a gun!
- A robust recovery when the depth of gloom was inevitably
reached and this is the lesson for investors – buy when all others are
selling!

Resources:
China census 1990: IIASA figures
How bearish is the FTSE?
Jim Slater's recommendations in 2006.

Robert Mooney, is a contributor to Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website
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