Wednesday, June 2, 2010

FTSE 250 (MIDD) Risk is easily determined - but what of Reward?

No shortage of negative news items to burden the market but so far bulls are holding out. Looking at the FTSE 250 ETF (MIDD) there are buyers lurking around a support level connecting reaction lows of November, February, May and June. A loss of this level could send markets reeling but as long as it holds buyers hold the edge. This is the risk.

Zignals Chart Image

The real question is what's the upside?

If your long term view is bearish then the likelihood is for a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern; in this pattern there are two left-hand-shoulders at 945 (November) and 962 (January) and a head at 1,064 from April. If we are to see a right-hand-shoulder (and more likely two) then the first of these should appear around 1,015 depending on the length of time it takes the current bounce to get to a resistance line connecting the two left-hand-shoulders.

From there look for another move back to rising support then a bounce back to complete the second right-hand-shoulder before things really turn south.

Zignals Chart Image

A more bullish scenario raises the bar for a new upward price channel with resistance anchored at the April high. This would measure up for a first upside target close to 1,100. But for this to happen it would require negating the bearish scenario first!

On the trading signals front it was quiet on both the long and short front. Only one of my 58 trading strategies was busy generating signals - and most of these were for unacted signals!

ASX Price x 20-day MA

Long Unacted Entry for DJS (Sydney) at AU$4.38 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.
Long Entry for STO (Sydney) at AU$12.40 (EoD)
Long Unacted Entry for ANN (Sydney) at AU$12.48 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for WPL (Sydney) at AU$42.94 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (9) days ago.
Long Exit at Stop for QBE (Sydney) at AU$19.08 (EoD)
Long Unacted Entry for OSH (Sydney) at AU$5.52 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (4) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for ORG (Sydney) at AU$15.03 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (7) days ago.

ETF Kauto Star

New Long Target and Stop for TWM (NYSE) at $21.05 (EoD): Target $23.82, Stop $20.57
Long Entry for DXD (NYSE) at $29.74 (EoD)

India Oak

Short Confirmation Entry for SBI (Mumbai) at INR2264.5

Indian Strength

New Long Target and Stop for ONGC (Mumbai) at INR1179.4 (EoD): Target INR1313.4, Stop INR1098.5
Long Exit at Trailing Stop for HALC (Mumbai) at INR143.2

Tri-Indicator US Dividends

Long Exit at Stop for BP (NYSE) at $37.34

UK Golden Brown

Long Confirmation Entry for TBK (London) at 511p

UK High Winners

Long Entry for TBK (London) at 511p

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