Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Alcoa: Weak Earnings Catalyst for Head-and-Shoulder Reversal

Weak earnings for Alcoa will likely set the tone for Tuesday's trading, but will this mark the beginning of the end for the current rally as some are suggesting?

While profit taking is likely to hit large cap indices after three days of successively lower volume gains, the contagion, Alcoa, has been struggling for much longer.

The stock peaked at the start of 2010 with a high of $17.60 but unlike the rallies in the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq off February lows, Alcoa has failed to make much headway and remains some distance from challenging 2010 highs. Indeed, along with Verizon (VZ), it has been the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial performance, down over 9% YTD compared to the +32% return for Boeing (BA).

The stock is shaping what looks to be a head-and-shoulder reversal pattern which on a break of the neckline, could see a long-term downside move to between $8.50 and $9.00 - toying with the summer lows of 2009.

Zignals Chart Image

I have created a Trading Idea for a push to $8.61 with a stop at $15.31. You can follow other Trading Ideas like these from my Zignals Home Page (each Zignals member has their own unique home page featuring their trading ideas and trading strategies; free membership is all it takes to get started and there is no charge to build a trading system or offer a stock pick).

Of the 144 Trading Strategies now available here a sample of some of the recent signals from my strategies:

BSE Zignals 1 mil Rupee

Long Entry for MAZD (Mumbai) at INR102.1
New Long Target and Stop for MAZD (Mumbai) at INR117.4 (EoD): Target INR129.6, Stop INR106.0

Commodities Oak

Commodities Oak Short Exit at Stop for SlvUSD (Commodities) at $18.43

Developing a Strategy

Long Exit at Profit Target for CAT (NYSE) at $65.93

Forex High Winners

Long Confirmation Entry for EURUSD (FX) at 1.3380

Frankfurt High Winners

Long Confirmation Entry for AFX (Frankfurt) at €11.70

India Oak

Short Exit at Stop for ZEE (Mumbai) at INR292.6

Indian Golden Brown

New Long Target and Stop for BHEL (Mumbai) at INR2576.2 (EoD): Target INR2843.5, Stop INR2326.5

Indian Strength

New Long Target and Stop for ZEE (Mumbai) at INR293.2 (EoD): Target INR324.3, Stop INR271.2

Relative Canada

Long Confirmation Entry for CHE.UN (Toronto) at $12.53
Long Confirmation Entry for GDI.UN (Toronto) at $7.82
Long Confirmation Entry for DPS.UN (Toronto) at $19.01
Long Unacted Entry for PKI.UN (Toronto) at $11.37 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (3) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for BAD.UN (Toronto) at $15.53 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (5) days ago.
Long Unacted Entry for DCI.UN (Toronto) at $14.58 (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (15) days ago.
Long Exit at Profit Target for WTE.UN (Toronto) at $17.19
Long Exit at Profit Target for CHL.UN (Toronto) at $12.59

Relative Forex

Long Exit at Profit Target for CADUSD (FX) at 0.9840 (EoD)
Long Exit at Trailing Stop for JPYUSD (FX) at 0.0110 (EoD)

Relative Frankfurt

New Long Target and Stop for DB1 (Frankfurt) at €56.35 (EoD): Target €62.22, Stop €50.90

Short Trender

Short Entry for WMT (NYSE) at $55.16 (EoD) on 12 Apr 10

Tri-indicator Canada

Long Entry for CHE.UN (Toronto) at $12.53 (EoD)
Long Entry for PKI.UN (Toronto) at $11.37 (EoD)

Tri-Indicator UK

Long Exit at Profit Target for JD. (London) at 683p (EoD)

UK Golden Brown

Long Unacted Entry for HSD (London) at 179p (EoD): Entry signal given, but exited position on same stock too recently (6) days ago.

UK High Winners

Long Confirmation Entry for CCAP (London) at 16p
Long Entry for HSD (London) at 179p

US Oak

Short Confirmation Entry for WMT (NYSE) at $55.16

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals MarketPortal or the Zignals Trading Strategy MarketPlace.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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