Friday saw the S&P closed 5.2% off its 9-day MA, 3.9% off its 5-day MA and 2.1% off its 3-day MA.
The next match was on March 6th 2009 and a period of three days for 18th, 19th and 20th of Febaruary 2009. The subsequent reactions given their proximity were stark - one sharply up, the other sharply down.
The next series of matches was on November 21st 2008, November 17th 2008, October 22nd 2008 and October 3rd 2008. Here the score was two up, one flat and one down.
The next round of matches was in 2000, with isolated cases in 2003 and 1998; three of those cases saw a higher close 10 days later with only 2003 finishing lower.
The last set of occurrences were in May 1962 (flat) and September 1955 (flat).
If we were to look at the relevant performance of the S&P across the 10 days relative to the start day (for all matches) a slightly different picture emerges.
The picture is a little more stark for median values; here the second day is the strongest day with a 3.6% push higher (which may be similar to what the market does today). But from there it's a steady loss until 8 days after the match where the median return is 1.0% below the start date.
So far, Monday's reaction to Friday's close is stronger than both average and median behaviour in the past. The likelihood here is that we will see a return back to Friday's closing level within the next ten days. At that point the dust will have settled somewhat and we will have a better idea as to the roadmap ahead.
Given this - shorts may have the most to play for off today's gains.
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