Friday, May 2, 2008

Future History – an oxymoron?

Nailing something to the mast is a common expression – so let me do the same

[1] I am a contrarian
[2] I believe history can help forecast the future
[3] Individual ideas – not/or ideologies – drive the world, and we need these ideas to progress, not government dictat

Have I alienated half the world? If so at least I have a potential audience of the other half!

History is in the past; one day, one year, one millennium.

Today is tomorrow's history, so it is with markets, humans and ideas.

But which of these three influence the future?

Humans do so by their actions and their ideas. Actions stem from ideas - perceived or submerged - and so ideas are the influencing factor into the future.

In 1999 it was my belief sectors of the market were dangerously overvalued – companies selling for 100,000 their forward revenue. So I trawled for markets which were not overvalued and were ignored by the general punter.

I found it – with a very few others - in commodities and precious metals. I expect this same sector to produce an even better performance over the next 10 years

That’s how an idea turns into action.

Robert Mooney discusses topics around investment strategies, ETF investing and market sentiment for Zignals