Buying the Bull

The following infographic by InvesTech Research (and sourced on The Big Picture) neatly shows the duration of all bull markets dating back to 1932.  The current bull market is running to form, having just surpassed the median length of a bull market. It's simple chart which takes the last swing low and projects forward in time; for example, the current bull market is timed from the March 2009 low.

What's interesting is how few bull markets fail inside a year.  It's a lot easier to trade a bull market if after a year the market has failed to take out the past year's low, suggesting something longer than just a relief bounce in a bear market. Only in 1932 and 1942 would you have been buying into a top had you waited a year after the low to buy. 

How would have fared had you bought a year after a low, and sold two years later (i.e. three years into a bull market), or three years later and four years later (when most bull markets typically end)? The table below highlights the returns based on available data (back to 1950).

The first obvious point to make is that a large portion of the potential return is lost in the first year of 'confirming' the bull market, but this cost-of-business is necessary to limit the risk of a bear "fake out".

The second point is the omission of the pre-1950 data, when bull market performance was at its weakest.  This would likely have had an adverse impact on the returns reported. 

Overall, returns were positive, with the best return coming from a holding period of 4 years after the purchase.  This offered an annualized return of 9%. Only in 1957, 1966 and 1970 were the returns sub-standard or negative.

Tailoring the entry a little more didn't bring an increase in Returns.  For example, buying the S&P when it was within 1% of its 200-day MA, but only after a year has passed from the bull market low, lowered the Annualized return. However, this form of entry is well suited to a Zignals Alert, which can notify of such opportunities (when the SPY is within 1% of its 200-day MA) as they occur. By setting an alert, the trader doesn't miss such opportunities as they arise, rather than attempting to trade an arbitary system, such as buying exactly 1 year after a bull market low.

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too.

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What will the S&P offer in 2013?

Last March, the S&P was performing very strongly and traded at 1,416.  The 1-year S&P projection, based on historic matches of its relative position to 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs at this time was also very bullish.  It was a projecting a further +15% gain, with a +9% to +21% confidence interval.  A 15% gain would see the S&P around 1,628 this March. The low end 9% projection from the confidence interval offered an S&P at 1,543. As of January 4th, the S&P closed at 1,466.

In October of last year, the S&P missed the 6-month projection from March as the market trended lower. The S&P's relative position at that time was still net bullish, although it ultimately continued to decline through to November.  The October 6-month projection was more conservative, but still projected upside, with a target of 1,475 for March 2013, and 95% confidence range of 1,419-1,542.

There is still a couple of months to go before we get to these projection dates. As things stand, it is looking good for the S&P to hit the upper confidence level from October 2012/lower confidence level from March 2012 - at around the 1,540 mark. 

Currently, the S&P is 5.4% above its 200-day MA, 3.8% above its 50-day MA, and 2.5% above its 20-day MA.  This mildly bullish environment occurred frequently in the past; there were 32 prior occurrences of this match dating back to 1951.

The projection map based on the 32 data points is as follows:

Based on the close of the 4th January, by next year the S&P should be around 1,583, although there is a large degree of variance, particularly after 6 months.

However, this doesn't come without exceptions.  In 8 of the 32 matches (25%), the market was lower.  The worst case match was from October 1st 2007, when the market went on to lose 25% of its value the following year. Matches in 2003, 1972 and 1965 also led to falls of more than 10%. Of the outsize winners: 1954, 1958, 1995, and 1996 all saw gains above 30% in a year. In 1961, 1964, 1988, 1989, 2003, and 2006, gains for the next year were all above 10%.

Projections from the last fifty years appear to suggest bulls will maintain their edge into 2014. If proven true, it would put the cyclical bull market into its fifth year - a run which would be considered long in the tooth by most metrics. This might prove to be the last big gain, although there hasn't yet been a clear bearish projection since this analysis was started.

One can use Zignals Alerts to track the various price levels in the SPY.  A stop at 10% would protect against the worst of any downside.  While an alert to trigger on a 10% gain may be used as a cue to sell covered calls (?).

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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Acitve Stock Screening: October 9th

This screen was last run in August, but even during this short period there were a number of changes in qualifying stocks. Dropping from the top-8, as ranked by Market Cap, was CF Industries and Randgold Resources.  Vertex Pharmaceuticals jumped into sixth spot as Lululemon Athletica crept in to fill out the last spot

The Active Stock Screen used the following parameters:

• % Chg EPS; Q to last yr Q of 25% or more
• % Chg EPS; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• % Chg Revenue; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• Return on Average Equity of 17% or more
• 5-yr Revenue Growth Rate of 15% or more
• Market Cap of at least $50M
• Net Profit Margin of 18% or More
• Current price above $12
• Average 10-day volume above 250,000 shares

And it generated the following results:

While Baidu tops the list on fundamentals, on price it has been struggling. Technology stocks were hit hard over two days of heavy selling, as sectors dependent on strong economic conditions saw big outflows.  For Baidu, this has seen the stock drop sharply towards $100 support; $100 support was defended last October and July, and is a key psychological level, but it could struggle to hold for a third time given broader selling pressures. The stock has also struggled to make it back to resistance, with each successive swing high becoming lower and lower. Concerns around monetization of its mobile offerings are more of a long term issue, and analyst rating cuts only add to the panic. But the current sell is governed more by broader economic impacts on the technology sector, rather than stock specific issues.  A Zignals Alert set for a price cross below $100 would be a good time to take a second look at Baidu, and gauge whether there is an opportunity for a support buy, or if it's time to head for the exits.



Priceline suffered a sharp drop just three days after it featured here. Disappointing guidance was blamed for the sell off, but the company had just reported a 20% increase in revenue, with a net income of $7.85 which was ahead of analyst estimates of $7.36 a share.  While a guidance of $11.78 per share in net income may be viewed as disappointing, it's significantly ahead of the $9.95 reported for the comparable quarter last year. Historically too, Priceline is in the habit of coming in ahead of expectations. Stock price has recovered somewhat, but it's now in an area where 'weak' bag holders may decide enough is enough. A drift below $600 would probably see sideline money come in to support it.  Despite all this, the stock retained its second spot in the scan (as ranked by Market Cap).



HDFC Bank manged to buck the trend of the previous two stocks by actually moving higher.  The stock handily cleared $36-36.50 resistance at the second time of asking, helped by an earnings report which showed 30% rise in profit from the prior-year quarter. Deposits were also up 22%. However, the company also reported a 26% rise in costs for the same period. But overall, the news was deemed positive enough to support the breakout.  For a stock which is news-lite, there should be enough momentum to see it get to its next earnings release.



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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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What Next For The S&P?

When I last ran this piece in March, the S&P was trading at 1,412, and the mean six month projection based on relative position of the index to its key moving averages was around 1,518 (95% confidence interval of 1,464 - 1,572).  Six months later, the S&P closed at 1,447 which was under the 95% band projection.  There was a similar under-performance in November of last year.   However, the index is higher than it was in March and posted a swing high, which fell inside confidence interval projections.

The 12-month projection from March calls for an even higher move to 1,622.  For this to hold true, a powerful 'Santa Rally' would have to exceed what has come before. The low end of the 95% Confidence Interval calls for a push to 1,540, which isn't as far fetched, but requires another 100 points from where the S&P lies now.

But what of the current situation?

As of October 1st, the S&P was trading 6.2% above its 200-day Moving Average, 2.2% above its 50-day MA and was effectively flat (0.1% above) against its 20-day MA.

Historically, this situation has occurred 18 times in the past, with six of those cases clustered during the 1950s (the start date is 1950), and another four in the 1960s. In the past thirty years there have only been five such matches.

During the 1950-60s there was underlying bullish market, punctuated by quite sharp bearish reversals.  This give way to the inflationary 1970s, against an underpeforming stock market. Visually, the current situation looks to have more in common with the 70s than the 50s, less the inflation, but there is nothing to suggest a repeat of the go-go 90s!

If we map each individual case of the 18 matches over a 1-year projection, we get the following (average in blue, 95% confidence intervals red/green):

The projection for the next 12 months is mildly bullish. There was an extreme upside of 17%, after 6 months, in 1954. Or a worse case plunge of -13%, as emerged in 1972, for the same 6-month period.  The 95% Confidence Interval straddles the zero line and doesn't support a runaway rally for the next 6 or 12 months.  It's also unlikely the 12-month projection from March will be fulfilled.

In light of this, the next few months are likely to be quiet, and the 'Santa Rally' - if we have one - will be modest. When Obama was elected, the market swiftly headed south, and his re-election may trigger the same response.

With the June-Oct rally maturing, it's going to be sector pockets which will perform.  Health Care was a key beneficiary in recent days, with Technology struggling to keep pace.  In the broader view (weekly charts) picture, leading sectors have been Staples and Utilities, both defensive plays. With market leadership coming from defensive sectors, it suggests the current rally is in an end-game scenario.  Although the aforementioned projections suggest a period of flatness, rather than an outright decline, is the more likely outcome in the months ahead.

In light of this, there are some targets one can set Alerts for to keep track of things:

Current 6-month projection for S&P set for March 2013: 1,475 (SPY: $147.52)
Prior 12-month projection for S&P set for March 2013: 1,622 (SPY: $162.20)
Upper 95% confidence interval of 6-month projection for S&P: 1,542 (SPY: $154.20)
Lower 95% confidence interval of 6-month projection for S&P: 1,419 (SPY: $141.94)
Historical worse case 6-month scenario for S&P: 1,256 (SPY: $125.63)

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.
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Active Screening: August 3rd

Back in March, our Active Screen had kept Apple in top spot. Has this situation changed over the course of a scrappy summer?

The Active Stock Screen used the following parameters:
• % Chg EPS; Q to last yr Q of 25% or more
• % Chg EPS; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• % Chg Revenue; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• Return on Average Equity of 17% or more
• 5-yr Revenue Growth Rate of 15% or more
• Market Cap of at least $50M
• Net Profit Margin of 18% or More
• Current price above $12
• Average 10-day volume above 250,000 shares

For the first time, this screen didn't feature Apple.

Topping the list is Baidu (BIDU). The stock was range bound in March and despite an attempted break of $140 in April it was unable to make the move stick and the stock returned into its base and back to the lows of $100.  The stock is mounting a new rally but the stock has work to do before it can clear what is stiff resistance in the $155-165 area.



Ranked in second place is Priceline (PCLN).  This stock was flying after it cleared $550 in February before it topped out arounf $775.  The stock subsequently eased into the $625-700 range and looks to be consolidating before its next move.


In third place is HDFC Bank (HDB).  The stock was ranked seventh in March.  While it's ranking rose it's action has remained relatively stagnant, with a drop-and-rally all to show for the past few months. $36.50 remains key resistance.


Fourth ranked is Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).  This stock was not ranked in March, but had featured in the past.  The stock had enjoyed a lengthy multi-year year which peaked around $600 in April/May.  It suffered a hard hit in July when sales figures fell.  This will likely take a few months to smooth out.  Up until the drop the stock was basing well and may look to $450 to find its footing once more.


CF Industries Holdings took fifth spot. Since the break of $100 the stock's rally has become somewhat erratic, but it has managed to sicne double in price to take it to $200 (although it bottomed at $36.91 in 2008).


In sixth spot is Continental Resources (CLR).  The oil and natural gas exploration firm has been in a steady price decline since the peak just shy of $100 in February.  The decline is relatively orderly and may evolve into a base around $60.  Until then, this is watchlist material.



In seventh spot is Concho (CXO).  This is a new player on the list. Like Continental Resources it has suffered a steady decline since the February peak as oil prices declined.  Look for basing action.


The last stock to qualify on the list is Randgold Resources (GOLD).  The stock is trading off its late 2011/12 highs close to the range of the 2011 base.  The gap below $100 will play as resistance on the recovery, but its first challenge will be clearing $95.



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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.
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What Next for the S&P? Bullish Outlook

The past few months have been very good for bulls with the S&P adding 22% since the 2011 November swing low.  When analysis on projections for the S&P was done a couple of days after the November swing low, there was no clear advantage for either bulls or bears. The conclusion then was:

In summary, despite the projection uncertainty, there appears to be more on offer for bulls than bears. Although context should be drawn from a January 2011 projection which currently requires the S&P to rally by over 6% in the space of a couple of months, just to meet the low-end of the 95% confidence interval range!

Looking at the January 2011 projection, at the time of writing the S&P was trading at 1,276. One year later it was at 1,316, a 3% gain; this failed to meet the low-end expectation of the 1-year projection. Effectively, the S&P at the end of January was well below the bullish expectations of a year ago. Since then, the S&P has managed to add another 7.5% to make its position more respectable, but has it reached a point where it could be considered fair value? 

As of March 26th the S&P was 12.0% above its 200-day MA, 4.6% above its 50-day MA and 2.4% above its 20-day MA.  How has this compared in the past?

While the S&P is currently bullish it falls just outside of the top 10% of bullish extensions from the 200-day MA (No. 1 spot is held by November 3rd 1982 when the S&P was 23% above its 200-day MA).  Looking back to 1950 there were 19 historic matches to the current scenario.

Interestingly, back in November 2011 the S&P was matched to April 2003; currently the S&P is matched to September 2003, so the events of 2003 still hold relevance. 

The other aspect of note was the clustering of matches; three for 2003/04, five for 1995/96/97 and three for 1954/55.  All clustering occurred in strong bullish environments.  In fact, with the exception of 1959, all the matches offered a bullish outlook for the year ahead.

The Mean and 95% Confidence Interval offered a very bullish outlook going forward

Whether the S&P disappoints on that projection, as taken from January 2011, remains to be seen. Of the 19 matches, only in 1980 was there a significant decline in the month following the match - shifting a 10% loss before recovering a net 4% gain after 6 months.  So while future weakness can never be excluded it would be surprise if losses lingered beyond 6 months.  Traders can use Zignals Alerts to help track the S&P or its SPY proxy.

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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Active Screening: Apple Keeps Top Spot

Apple kept its hold on top spot, as it did in January.  With a $0.5+ Trillion market cap it feels like the stock is carrying the entire market rally on its back.  But what of the 'also rans'?  This month's list is one of the most eclectic which makes a change from the normally commodity-heavy components.

The Active Stock Screen used the following parameters:

• % Chg EPS; Q to last yr Q of 25% or more
• % Chg EPS; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• % Chg Revenue; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• Return on Average Equity of 17% or more
• 5-yr Revenue Growth Rate of 15% or more
• Market Cap of at least $50M
• Net Profit Margin of 18% or More
• Current price above $12
• Average 10-day volume above 250,000 shares

It's hard to think Apple was toiling around $363 in late November, stuck as it was in a trading range. At $585 a ticket it's somewhat rich to be buying; 20% above its 50-day MA and 46% above its 200-day MA it would need either to come back to one of these moving averages, or 'wait' for the moving average to catch up with price (by moving sideways for a time).  The new iPad is out, so it's stuck in a bit of a news lull and Q2 earnings not due until the end of April.  Given the blowout Q1 it's unlikely to repeat the performance in Q2; this might be the 'disappointment' the stock needs to skim the froth off the price.



In second spot (but up two spots from January), with just a tenth of Apple's Market Cap, is Baidu (BIDU). The stock is caught in a broad trading range, but is applying pressure to supply at $140 resistance. In the next couple of weeks it should have enough to see $140 broken and start a move to $155. The company releases earnings on April 26th as is projecting a soft Q1 after very strong quarterly earnings growth in 2011.  If there is any lingering goodwill from Q4 it could deliver a positive surprise and setup a challenge of $165.



In third spot is Apache Corp. (APA). This oil and gas exploration company has jumped into the top-3 having never previously featured on the scan. This sector is regaining its mojo as rising oil prices make it an attractive commodity play. The stock successfully broke through - and retested - its 200-day MA in February and is in the process of creating a 'Golden Cross' with its 50-day MA.  How much demand is in this rally will be tested when it gets to $115 and above.  A break of $133 will put it into the clear.



In fourth spot is Potash Saskatche (POT). Unlike the previous three stocks this isn't experiencing a price revival.  It currently trades below its 50-day MA and a downtrending 200-day MA, caught inside a $39-47 trading range. Optimistic bulls may look for a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern; if this was to play true then $42 would have to hold as support as this looks to be the swing low for the right-hand-shoulder of this pattern.  Supply kicks on a test of the 200-day MA and/or $50 - the latter was support for the first part of 2011. The company disappointed in its Q4 release, but it did off a series of strong quarters. If this proves to be just a blip in the larger scheme of things it might be offering good value, just know your risk.  Use Zignals Alerts to tell you when a certain price is broken.



In fifth place is a biotech stock, Celgene (CELG).  The stock enjoys the dual benefit of consistent earnings growth and increasing demand. Other than Q4 it usualy beats Wall Street Estimates and if it was to resume its past form it could contribute a solid boost to an already strong stock.  The stock is currently trading in the upper range of its channel, but buyers might be tempted if it was to undercut the 50-day MA, but stay within the confines of the channel.



In sixth spot is Priceline (PCLN).  This stock has been consistently there or thereabouts as others jumped in and out of the list.  This good form eventually paid dividends as the long standing trading range from 2011 between $450 and $550 was sliced in 2012. It quickly added $100 and is looking to surge again. Its consistency extends to Wall Street Estimates which have closely matched actual values. Q1 is a traditionally weak period for the travel company, although it's expected to exceed Q1 earnings from last year by nearly 60%.



In seventh spot is another list lurker in HDFC Bank (HDB).  Unlike Priceline (PCLN) it hasn't enjoyed the same success and remains locked in a trading range. While financials are catching a bid it's unlikely to see a significant increase in demand until $36.50 resistance is taken out.



The last stock on the list is Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN).  Like Celgene (CELG) it has enjoyed excellent quarterly earnings growth, exceeding analyst estimates to a greater degree than Celgene.  Another strong quarter is projected for Q1. The stock is up against resistance of a bullish channel started in the summer of 2011.  The stock may be about to enter another consolidation phase as it did in October 2011 as it 'waits' for its 50-day MA to catch up with the advance. The stock looks to have an active bid around $84, so stop placement should go somewhere below this.



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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.
Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.
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Active Screening: Apple Leads

It has been a couple of months since the results of this screen were last looked at, but a fresh run of the screen has seen very little change in the top ranked stocks (as ranked by Market Cap).

The stock screen used the following parameters:

• % Chg EPS; Q to last yr Q of 25% or more
• % Chg EPS; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• % Chg Revenue; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• Return on Average Equity of 17% or more
• 5-yr Revenue Growth Rate of 15% or more
• Market Cap of at least $50M
• Net Profit Margin of 18% or More
• Current price above $12
• Average 10-day volume above 250,000 shares

Apple's stellar quarter is likely to keep the stock in the no.1 spot for many more months to follow. It has been almost a year since this screen was first run and Apple still holds top spot. The stock was toying with its 200-day MA back in November, a situation which had previously offered great buying opportunities and it proved to be no exception once again.  The stock did briefly toil at its 50-day MA, but the stock didn't look back once it was able to put some distance from it. New buyers need to be looking to $420 support an area to hold on any retracement. This price should factor into any risk:reward calculation; the reward been a projected measured move target of $480. A Zignals Alert will help you track these two key price levels.



While Rio Tinto held second spot it had the dubious distinction of trading in a downtrend and was on course to test $40 support.  Since November it has been able to break upwards from the channel without making it back to $40; it currently lies just a couple of dollars shy of its 200-day MA at $60.  The next few weeks could see supply at the 200-day MA become more of an issue, although any retracement off its 200-day MA should find support at $58 (i.e. at its current price).  Given that, $58 is probably a good value price assuming the above plays out; stops go on a loss of the 50-day MA.



Another mining stocks occupies third spot. Barrick Gold (ABX) has been range bound since the latter part of 2010. This situation hasn't changed since last November, although the Accumulation Swing Index is favouring a bearish break of $43. Not helping is how converged 50-day and 200-day MAs are playing out as resistance. Value buyers may look to this as an aggressive entry opportunity, although stops would not be far below $43.



Fourth is still Baidu (BIDU). Back in November it had failed to hold an upside break of its 200-day MA, instead tumbling below both 200-day MA and its 50-day MA to leave it on a course to test $102.50.  It was able to gain some upward momentum from the broader market 'Santa rally', but it still had problems holding its 50-day MA. However, resistance connecting the swing highs from August looks to be more pressing. A break above this line should be enough to see a push above the 200-day MA too. Stops can go on a loss of the December swing low at $110.  The first target is $145.



Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has enjoyed a steady rally from the December swing low, but it has yet to test $50 resistance. A negative view on its Macau operations might crimp any drive past psychological $50, but there is little suggest in the chart that the market is dumping the stock.



Priceline (PCLN) was starting to show an ugly side back in November as it failed to break from a gently falling consolidation, and was soon followed by a 'Death Cross' between its 50-day and 200-day MAs. The stock eventually made it back to $450 where it was able to attract enough demand to see it hold this support level. Since then, the stock rallied to $525 where it has spent the past week shaping a small 'bull flag'.  The typical response from this pattern is a continuation of the upward trend with a measured target around $600; stops go on a loss of $510. Long term trend watches will consider Priceline range bound between $450 and $550 and may not be inclined to get involved until $550 breaks. If, on such a break of $550 volume expands, a revised upward target of $650 can be used.



HDFC Banks (HDB) was the only financial services stock to make the top 8 picks. In November the stock was struggling after it lost $28 support and was encountering resistance at its 50-day MA, but since then the stock has managed to clear a number of resistance points and trades at $31. The fact the stock has not only recovered from the significant loss of $28, but a declining channel connecting swing highs from last July, means shorts will be under pressure to cover (if they haven't already).  This demand will encourage additional funds in from the sidelines in the form of fresh buyers. TheStreet had downgraded the stock in mid-January to little effect on price action.



A third mining stock, Anglogold Ashanti (AU), occupies seventh spot. This stock has struggled to re-establish the 2010 bull trend, drifting from $52s highs to the current mid-$40s. Support can be found at $39 and the start of the 2010 trend at $35, but with both 50-day MA and 200-day MAs heading lower it's hard to see when this will break out of its funk. Bulls can look to sharply improving fundamentals, besting FY2010 performance, as an eventual trigger for a new upward trend.



The only new stock to make the grade was Continental Resources (CLR). This American oil and gas exploration company is not only enjoying solid earnings growth, but is one of the few qualifying stocks also enjoying a solid bullish trend. The stock is trading above (and successfully tested) $72 support. The break of $72 sets up a possible measured move target of $96 (risk is assessed using a stop below $72). The current rally was started from $46 in October and generated a 'Golden Cross' between the 50-day and 200-day MAs in December as it was trading around $62.


Remember, you can use Zignals Alerts to track when prices are triggered for any of the aforementioned stocks, or stocks you own or are interersted in.

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies via his Zignals home page. Each Zignals member has an unique home page which they can share with friends and clients to sell their strategies.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell it in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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Active Stock Screen: November 30th

Since the last update in November the S&P was trading at 1,262 and stocks were still enjoying the fruits of the October rally. Since then, markets have eased, although some of these losses have been recovered over the past three days.

Our group of 8 stocks, ranked by Market Cap, were led by Apple (AAPL), followed by Rio Tinto (RIO), Cnooc (CEO), Barrick Gold (ABX), Baidu (BIDU), Priceline (PCLN), HDFC bank (HDB), and Yanzhou Coal (YZC).

The stock screen used the following parameters:

• % Chg EPS; Q to last yr Q of 25% or more
• % Chg EPS; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• % Chg Revenue; YTD to last YTD of 25% or more
• Return on Average Equity of 17% or more
• 5-yr Revenue Growth Rate of 15% or more
• Market Cap of at least $50M
• Net Profit Margin of 18% or More
• Current price above $12
• Average 10-day volume above 250,000 shares

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Creating a Zignals Chart Profile

Here is a request from a Member on saving chart settings and applying them to multiple stocks.

All I want to do is design a chart setup with certain indicators and a particular time frame and use that one setup for all of the symbols in my watchlist. I want to click on each symbol in my watchlist and have that symbol appear within the chart setup that I have created and saved.

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